Zillow home price forecast predicts modest dip, highlights regional winners and losers

Zillow home price forecast: national outlook and regional extremes

Zillow economists released their latest 12‑month Zillow home price forecast, projecting a modest ↓ 0.2% dip in the Zillow Home Value Index from May 2026 to May 2027. The revision trims the April outlook of +0.1% and the March projection of +0.5%.

Current year‑over‑year growth stands at ↑ 0.8%, still well below the 3.5% rise in average wages, suggesting affordability may improve if mortgage rates stay steady. Reuters notes that slower price appreciation eases pressure on buyers.

Metros slated for the strongest gains

Among the 300 largest metro areas, Zillow expects the biggest increases in Rockford, IL (4.3%), Syracuse, NY (4.2%), Utica, NY (3.7%), Atlantic City, NJ (3.6%) and Rochester, NY (3.4%). Smaller gains are projected for Binghamton, NY (3.3%) and Youngstown, OH (3.0%).

Metros facing the steepest declines

Conversely, the forecast calls for double‑digit drops in Houma, LA (‑6.6%), Austin, TX (‑6.1%) and Lake Charles, LA (‑5.3%). Other markets such as New Orleans (‑4.8%), Alexandria, LA (‑4.1%) and Chico, CA (‑4.0%) also appear vulnerable.

“The market is transitioning from pandemic‑driven excess to a more balanced pace,” said Zillow’s chief economist.

Analysts argue that Zillow may be overly bearish on New Orleans and parts of the Bay Area, where tech‑driven demand could cushion losses. For a full breakdown, see Zillow’s interactive map.