El Niño stronger: Climate Change Drives Unprecedented Intensification, Study Shows

El Niño stronger is no longer a theoretical projection; a new peer‑reviewed analysis confirms the Pacific phenomenon has amplified by ↑ 40% since the pre‑industrial era.

The research, published in Science on Aug. 27, examined coral cores from the Galápagos that span millennia, revealing a clear shift toward higher‑intensity events after the 19th‑century fossil‑fuel boom.

How climate warming fuels an El Niño stronger cycle

Computer simulations ruled out volcanic eruptions or solar variability as drivers, isolating anthropogenic warming as the dominant factor. The 2026‑27 episode is already projected to eclipse the 2023‑24 event, which pushed 2024 to become the hottest year on record.

“We do not see a historical period where El Niños match today’s intensity,” said Julia Cole, professor and department chair at the University of Michigan.

El Niño stronger episodes disrupt global rain belts, ignite wildfires, and strain food systems—effects documented in recent Reuters reports on droughts across Africa and floods in South America.

Policy experts warn that the feedback loop between a warming planet and an intensifying El Niño could accelerate ecosystem collapse, from the Amazon to Southeast Asian monsoons.

Words by: Elena Rostova

Socio-Economic Trends Analyst