White House Bars Staff From Betting on Prediction Markets Amid Iran Conflict

Prediction Markets

The administration has issued a stark reminder to all personnel: wagering on prediction markets tied to the Iran war is now prohibited. Compliance officers flagged three Polymarket accounts that amassed ↑ $500,000 after correctly forecasting the ceasefire timeline.

According to a Reuters briefing, the White House memo cites potential conflicts of interest and the risk of insider knowledge influencing market outcomes.

“Staff must refrain from any speculative activity that could compromise national security,” the memo reads.

Legal analysts note that the move aligns with broader efforts to tighten ethical standards across federal agencies, especially as the Middle East conflict intensifies. The policy also mirrors guidance from the Bloomberg report on government‑linked financial conduct.

Words by Eleanor Cross (Chief Washington Correspondent).