Water Shortages Threaten US Lithium Mining Expansion, Raising Dependence on Imports

Rising water shortages are poised to choke the United States’ ambitions to scale lithium extraction, a study warned on May 28 in Communications Earth & Environment.

How water shortages could curtail US lithium mining

The analysis, led by Northwestern University’s Jennifer Dunn, maps 23 prospective sites against projected water availability through 2060. While demand for lithium—fuel for electric‑vehicle batteries—could surge, most planned mines sit in the arid West, where agriculture and households already compete for a dwindling supply. The researchers overlaid mining water needs with sectoral forecasts under four socioeconomic‑climate pathways. In the worst scenario, the Salton Sea basin shows ↓ 45% water surplus, rendering new operations untenable. Even under a high‑emission “business‑as‑usual” outlook, rainfall gains are insufficient to offset the deficit. Of the 115 mines slated by industry, only a handful in the Southeast—North Carolina and Arkansas—appear water‑secure. Yet, proximity to Indigenous lands, ecosystem fragility, and contamination risks raise additional hurdles. The United States currently imports > 50% of its lithium, chiefly from Chile and Argentina. Even if the Nevada mine and 22 advanced projects run through 2050, projected output of 0.15‑0.28 million metric tons per year falls short of the 0.8‑1.9 million tons needed to meet domestic demand, according to prior estimates. Policymakers thus face a paradox: the green transition hinges on lithium, yet climate‑driven water stress may force continued reliance on foreign supply chains. The study did not factor potential gains from inter‑basin water transfers, a gap noted by Dunn, who cited Reuters on similar infrastructure debates. As the nation grapples with post‑pandemic recovery and climate goals, water stewardship will be a decisive factor in the lithium race.

“Future water availability under climate change may constrain whether new lithium mines will have sufficient water to operate,” Dunn told Live Science.

Intel provided by: Elena Rostova

Socio-Economic Trends Analyst