Tri Pointe CEO says Sunbelt new home prices have slipped far more than headlines claim

Tri Pointe Homes’ chief executive Doug Bauer argues that Sunbelt new home prices have fallen far more than mainstream reports suggest. In a candid interview with ResiClub, Bauer dismisses the cliché that “affordability” alone is throttling demand, pointing instead to a lingering confidence gap among buyers.

Sunbelt new home prices: a deeper decline

He notes that net effective pricing in the builder’s premium “A” markets is ↓ 7% from the 2022 peak, while secondary “B” and “C” submarkets have seen cuts of up to ↓ 18%.

“The price story is over,” Bauer told ResiClub.

Incentives now average 9%‑9.5% of the sticker price, split between design discounts (≈55%) and financing credits (≈22%). He stresses that new‑home pricing is already below the national median resale price of $440,600, citing Lennar’s net‑average of $371,000 as proof. Bauer adds that the real engine of demand is job growth and consumer sentiment, not mortgage rates. Reuters and Bloomberg have tracked similar trends across the Sunbelt. The recent $4.5 billion acquisition of Tri Pointe by Japan’s Sumitomo Forestry, completed in May, lifts the combined entity into the top five U.S. builders, freeing management from quarterly earnings pressure. Bauer predicts a continued wave of privatizations as public‑market valuations lag behind building‑products peers. He concludes with a timeless reminder: shelter remains a non‑negotiable need, irrespective of macro volatility.

Dispatch from Nathaniel Reed (Wealth Management Correspondent).