Home price corrections reshape Naples, FL and Sevierville, TN second‑home markets

Analysts who warned in August 2023 that the vacation‑oriented markets of Naples, FL and Sevierville, TN were poised for a pull‑back see their forecasts validated as home price corrections have unfolded over the past three years.

home price corrections in Naples and Sevierville

In Naples, the luxury‑retirement enclave, median values fell ↓ 11.8% from the 2022 peak, while insurance premiums surged ↑ 30% since 2021, eroding affordability. Moody’s Analytics now rates the market as only 16% overvalued, down from 54% in 2022. The slowdown in Reuters-cited migration flows—net domestic inflows turned negative in 2024—has shifted demand toward local income earners.

“The correction has stripped out speculative excess without triggering a crash,” a local broker noted.

In Sevierville, the Smoky Mountains hub, prices dropped ↓ 12.9% after a brief surge of +79% between 2019 and 2022, as vacation‑rental inventory swelled and net migration reversed. The market’s active listings are now roughly flat year‑over‑year, and price declines have narrowed to -1.3% between June 2025 and June 2026, compared with a steeper -5.9% the year before. Both metros show inventory tightening and a moderation in price velocity, suggesting the worst of the froth is over. The broader pandemic housing boom’s legacy is a recalibrated supply‑demand balance, a trend echoed in Bloomberg analyses of second‑home markets nationwide.