New Study Links British Smallpox Scab Vial to 1789 Outbreak Among Indigenous Australians

British vial identified as source of the smallpox outbreak 1789

Mathematical modelling published in Nature Human Behaviour argues that a sealed container of dried smallpox scabs carried by the First Fleet in 1788 sparked the catastrophic 1789 epidemic among Indigenous Australians. Researchers led by archaeologist Alan Williams calculated that the disease likely spread from Botany Bay, where the fleet first anchored, rather than from Makassar contacts in the far north.

“The modeling makes it clear the northern theory cannot account for the rapid spread observed near Port Jackson,” said co‑author Matthew Cody Nitschke of Flinders University.

The study estimates a death toll of ↓ 220,000, a figure far higher than earlier colonial records suggested. It also challenges the long‑standing estimate of ≈300,000 Indigenous people at the time of settlement, proposing a pre‑colonial population of up to 5 million based on archaeological evidence.

According to Reuters, the vessel likely replenished its scab supply during stops at Cape Town or Rio de Janeiro, ensuring viral viability across the eight‑month voyage. The findings reshape the narrative of early Australian contact and underscore the role of accidental disease transmission in colonial expansion.

Intel provided by Eleanor Cross (Chief Washington Correspondent).