AfD Rise Sends Shockwaves Through Germany’s Political Center

AfD rise reshapes German politics

The recent state election in Saxony‑Anhalt has put the AfD rise front‑and‑center of German politics, as the far‑right secured ↑ 43.8% of the vote, eclipsing the Christian Democratic Union’s historic dominance.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who promised to halve far‑right support in 2018, now watches his own party tumble to a ↓ 22% share, a level not seen since the early 1990s.

Why the centre is crumbling

German domestic intelligence has flagged sections of the AfD as extremist, yet the party outpaces the CDU in national polls, while Merz’s approval sinks to unprecedented lows.

His reversal on the constitutional debt brake and his tepid defence‑spending plan have been weaponised by the AfD, which now questions Berlin’s aid to Ukraine.

“The AfD’s electoral surge is a symptom of systemic fatigue, not a flash in the pan,” says political analyst Dr. Lena Hoffmann of the Berlin Institute for Democratic Studies.

The upcoming regional contests in Baden‑Württemberg and Hesse will test whether the far‑right can translate its momentum into governing coalitions. Historically, Germany’s post‑war order has barred extremist parties from power; the current trajectory threatens that safeguard.

Merz’s legacy hinges on whether he can rally the centre around competent governance or cede ground to a party that challenges the very foundations of Germany’s “Westbindung”.

For a deeper look at the numbers, see Reuters and Bloomberg.

Words by Sebastian Thorne (European Affairs Analyst).