Wall Street’s Biggest Gain: S&P 500 Positive for the Year Amid Iran Conflict

S&P 500 positive for the year

Monday opened with U.S. equity indices slipping almost 1%, yet by late morning the S&P 500 had erased every loss recorded since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, finishing ↑ 1.02% at 6,886.24. The Nasdaq followed, adding ↑ 1.23%, while the Dow recovered 301 points after an early dip.

The catalyst was a brief X post by New York Post Pentagon reporter Caitlin Doornbos, who cited a “Pakistani analyst” saying Tehran was still weighing a U.S. proposal centred on nuclear enrichment. Within minutes, Brent crude slid roughly 4 % to $84 a barrel, prompting a flood of accusations that the tweet was market manipulation.

“One thing affecting why Iran couldn’t make a deal while U.S. was in Islamabad … Iranians could not call their final decision‑maker back in Tehran due to security risks,” Doornbos wrote.

By 11 a.m. she clarified that the information was already public – a point echoed by analysts who noted the market had been primed for any sign of de‑escalation. Wall Street has learned to buy the dip whenever Trump‑era tensions ease. A Reuters analysis shows nine of the ten best S&P 500 days since the start of the second Trump term coincided with reduced geopolitical risk.

Veteran strategists label the pattern the “TACO trade” – Trump always chickens out. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson told clients the recent sell‑off was merely a correction inside a broader bull market, with earnings growth accelerating despite the oil shock.

Intel provided by Arthur Sterling (Macroeconomics Editor).