Four Critical Unknowns That Will Shape the Next Phase of the Iran War

Nearly a month into the Iran war, mounting indicators suggest the conflict is set to expand rather than conclude. The big picture: Key future events—such as escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or major leadership changes in Tehran—could determine when the fighting ends. The U.S. and Israel are pursuing divergent endgames, with Israel prepared to tolerate greater instability to undermine the regime, officials told Axios. “Our objectives are our objectives,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated last week. “We’ll set the tempo of when those are met.” Here are four pivotal questions that could define the war’s next phase.

Intel provided by Zara Blackwood (Rapid Response Intelligence Analyst).