Trump’s Iran War Claims Crumble as Oil Prices Soar 50% and Stagflation Fears Mount

On March 9, President Donald Trump declared the Iran conflict “very complete” from his Florida golf course, telling CBS that Iran’s military capabilities had been decimated. Three weeks later, Brent crude has skyrocketed 50% to $113 per barrel, with analysts now warning of stagflation as the war escalates rather than winds down.

Oil prices have surged 50% in March, marking the steepest monthly gain since the 1990 Gulf War. The conflict shows no signs of resolution as Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched missiles at Israel over the weekend, while the Pentagon reportedly prepares for ground operations inside Iran to excavate uranium deposits.

Trump’s credibility with markets has evaporated. His Sunday evening habit of claiming peace talks are imminent or walking back threats to Iran no longer moves prices. Brent futures climbed toward their peak before settling at $113 Monday, while West Texas Intermediate hit $101 amid warnings that Asia’s gas crisis is spreading to American consumers.

The national average gas price hit $3.99 Monday, the highest since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. South Korea advises shorter showers, Thailand promotes energy-saving attire, and the Philippines distributes fuel aid as supply disruptions push costs higher globally.

Wall Street analysts are sounding alarms. Société Générale forecasts Brent averaging $125 in April with “credible spikes” toward $150 if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes. The International Energy Agency has released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, yet prices continue climbing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank’s impotence against supply shocks, telling Harvard audiences that monetary policy has “no meaningful effect” on oil-driven inflation. Citi strategist Jim McCormick warned investors face “more stagflation” with growth marked down and inflation marked up.

“It’s not great for bonds. It’s not great for equities. It’s a pretty bad mix for markets in general,” McCormick told Bloomberg TV, as investors retreat into what economist Ed Yardeni calls a “fetal position” waiting for doomsday $200 oil projections.

The conflict’s sixth week reveals Trump’s initial assessment as dangerously inaccurate, with the “fog of war” thickening as U.S. boots potentially head toward Iranian soil.

Bloomberg reports that market participants have grown numb to the President’s attempts to jawbone prices lower, focusing instead on concrete military developments and energy supply data.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Reported by Arthur Sterling (Macroeconomics Editor).