Israel Fears Trump Strengthening Iran’s Hand in Lebanon Amid New De‑confliction Deal

Israel fears Trump strengthening Iran’s hand in Lebanon

Two senior Israeli officials told Axios that the U.S‑Iran MOU, signed in Switzerland, effectively legitimises Tehran’s influence over Hezbollah and curtails Israel’s long‑standing freedom of action. The agreement obliges both parties to cease hostilities on Lebanese soil, a clause that Israeli leaders argue undermines the November 2024 cease‑fire framework brokered by the Biden administration, which allowed strikes against imminent Hezbollah threats.

“We are now confined to reacting only to immediate attacks,” one source said.

Tehran’s leverage grew after it threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel halted its cross‑border raids, prompting Washington to add a “de‑confliction cell” involving Lebanon, Pakistan and Qatar. ↓ 1 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly pressed former envoy Ron Dermer to sway the talks, a move that yielded a Trump‑era Truth Social warning to Iran. A senior U.S. official countered that the new mechanism, anchored by Washington, will ultimately benefit Israel by providing a direct channel to restrain Hezbollah. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signaled willingness to accept the framework if the United States leads it, while Senator Lindsey Graham warned that excluding Israel is a “major misstep.” The next round of diplomacy, set for Tuesday at the State Department, will be mediated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aiming for a phased Israeli pull‑back from southern Lebanon in exchange for Lebanese army deployment. Reuters and AP News continue to track the volatile negotiations.

Analysis by Tariq Al-Fayed (Middle East Geopolitical Strategist).