Inside Iran’s Shadow Leadership: Who Holds the Real Power in Tehran?

President Trump hinted Monday that a deal to end the Iran war may be near, but stopped short of naming the U.S. negotiating counterpart. The uncertainty stems from a leadership vacuum after Israel’s targeted killings of top Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former de facto civilian leader Ali Larijani. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba officially succeeded his father but has remained largely unseen, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—despite his experience in nuclear talks—is not viewed by U.S. officials as a key decision-maker. The White House is scrambling to identify who is actually steering Iran’s war strategy and establish reliable communication channels. Trump’s suggestion that regime change may be imminent further muddied the waters, even as Israel continues to target remaining leaders including Mojtaba Khamenei. Sources tell Axios that mediators have been attempting to set up direct contact between Trump’s envoys and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a former IRGC general. Ghalibaf denied any negotiations took place, calling U.S. claims “fake news” aimed at manipulating markets. Still, his seniority within the regime makes him a significant figure—he played a key role during last June’s 12-day war and warned of retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy facilities and Israel if Trump followed through on threats to bomb Iranian power plants. Ghalibaf’s deep ties to the IRGC and past allegations of corruption add complexity to his position. Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise to supreme leader was controversial given his lack of experience and the regime’s historical resistance to dynastic rule. Israel targeted him early in the conflict, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed he was “wounded and likely disfigured” in the strike that killed his father. His current physical condition, location, and role in war planning remain unknown, with U.S., Israeli, and allied intelligence agencies closely monitoring for signs of leadership activity. Araghchi, a seasoned diplomat who led two rounds of nuclear talks with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has pushed back against U.S. ultimatums and maintained that no direct contact has occurred since the war began. While U.S. officials doubt his authority to cut a deal, he could still be a key interlocutor in future negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024 as a reformist, holds significant day-to-day governing power but is not believed to be central to war planning or diplomacy. The IRGC, with its vast political and economic influence, remains a wildcard. Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly chosen in part due to strong IRGC backing, and the group has pledged full obedience to him. While the IRGC is unlikely to negotiate directly, its influence over the conflict’s trajectory and any peace efforts could be decisive. As the war grinds on, the question of who in Tehran holds real power—and whether they can be engaged—remains one of the most critical unknowns shaping the next phase of the conflict.

Intel provided by Tariq Al-Fayed (Middle East Geopolitical Strategist).